Wednesday 29 February 2012

NFC North in 2012

I spent the last post talking about the NFC East, so staying with the NFC theme I’m going to be looking at the North now. Clearly this is one of the strongest divisions in the League, that and possibly the AFC North, so both Wild Card spots could well go to this division. Anyway, enough of the bullshit, here it is.

Packers – Clearly, here is an offensive machine. Rodgers is unbelievable in the Red Zone, and frankly anywhere else on the pitch, Jennings, Nelson, Finley, Driver are some incredible wide outs, and people forget the important work that James Starks and sometimes even pro bowler John Kuhn do pounding the ball on the ground. Perhaps they would like to pick up a reserve QB, someone ordinary in case Rodgers does a Brady and Peyton and doesn’t throw a ball all season. I’m sure that sentence has sent shivers down the spines of many a Packers fan.  However, defense is the polar opposite to the star offense. This team had the single worst defense (yards per game) ever in the National Football League. And the old adage that defense wins championships is simply true, as has been proved many a time. This team needs a cornerback and a safety. Woodson is a great player with incredible experience, but he’s lost a step or two in recent years. Therefore, it may be wise to move him to safety so he can operate more in the zone. This then means that the main cornerbacks that the Packers have are Tramon Williams and Sam Shields. Hardly Hall of Fame names are they? And in a league with Matt Stafford and Jay Cutler, that could cost you games.  So in summary, this team can continue to shine on offense, but they won’t win anything again until they pick up some decent cornerbacks and maybe even safeties. They finish 13-3 and win the division, but lose out in the conference game.

Lions – In the last two games the Lions conceded over 90 points and over 900 yards. Admittedly it was to the Packers and the Saints, but this was Flynn, not Rodgers. They need some work on defense and badly. Both in the corners and at safety. They have the 23rd pick in the draft, and I hear that they like the look of Alabama safety Mark Barron, depending on his injury status. In terms of offense, it all centres on helping Matt Stafford out. They need some work on the Offensive Line and in the Running Back position to help out the play action game and third down short yardage situations. The Lions looked heavily at RBs at the Senior Bowl, and as such they appear to be heading the rookie way once more. With regards to the OL they could again go the rookie route with the major name in the frame being David DeCastro. Another huge huge huge issue for this side in the off season is re signing Calvin Johnson. They are set to make Megatron the highest paid receiver in the game, but boy do this team need him. I see them finishing with the same record as last year (10-6) and ending up with the Wild Card and a tough trip away from home somewhere, possibly San Fran. Good luck my friends.

Bears – If Jay Cutler and Matt Forte were not injured this team comfortably makes the play offs. And they go far. Who’s to say they wouldn’t have taken the Giants, setting up a mouth-watering Divisional Round game at the Packers. Anyway, on to next year. This team desperately needs some targets for Cutler. He needs a big play threat down the field. Whether they are willing to trade up in order to really go aggressively and get Blackmon remains to be seen, but on the Free Agency side of things Reggie Wayne or Dwayne Bowe look like great deals for Cutler to work with. Finally, they need a tight end, and someone like Fred Davis could fit the receiving mould of tight end that they want and need. So, where do I think that this team will go in this year? In a division with very little defense, they look to be the most all round team, so I like 11-5 and the NFCs 5th seed. Bold, but I think warranted as long as they don’t have to rely on Caleb Hanie once more.

Vikings – Who is going to throw the ball for them this year? Ponder looks decent, but the one that I like most was Joe Webb. In week 14 he led that team like a 10 year elite quarterback, not a novice. If the refs had spotted that blatant face mask I say they win that game, and Webb cements a position as starter for the rest of the season.  However, I think that they will stick with Ponder, so being a realist I’m going to assume that this is the case. If so, they need some help for him. A seriously high class left tackle is needed to give him longer in the pocket, someone like Demetrius Bell or the volatile yet brilliant Jared Gaither, both of whom are available on the free agency. Assuming the obvious that Henderson is snapped up they will need to find someone else to fill that now vacant middle linebacker position, and the free agency is solid but not spectacular, so expect the Packers to use their Tight Ends on opposing teams to stretch them in the middle of the park. The Vikings end 6-10, better than this year, but never really in competition in this ultra-competitive division. 

Three wildcards is my big call, and it would be brave to bet against it. Good luck must go to the AFC South and the NFC West. 

Thanks for reading my blog, means the world to me. 

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Thank you once again, 

Chris

Monday 27 February 2012

The I Line Screen

I've been thinking and recently I fancy myself, as well as a maestro of prediction, but as an Offensive Co Ordinator also. So here is my play, entitled "The I Line Screen" so called because of the initial line-up.

I will describe the play fully and then illustrate it in diagrams below, so do bare with me if it gets a little complicated.

The Formation


1. The line up is in the typical I-Formation, with two Tight Ends, with two running backs, as opposed to a full back and a running back.

2. The offensive line consists of a centre, two guards and the aforementioned two TE's.

3. Two WR's are lined up on the very edges of the playing area, with another lining up in the slot on either side, this being a feature which can be flipped depending on the defense.

The Play


1. Pre snap the quarterback makes a signal, which sends both running backs out of the backfield, whereupon they split. They then run towards the line of scrimmage, where they effectively assume the position of two extra WRs, thus giving the pre snap formation of a 5 wide formation.

2. The front running back, the quickest of the two, lines up on the strong side with the slot receiver, but crucially must be between the two WR's, outside of the slot receiver.

3. The other running back lines up on the side with one WR, between the TE and the WR.

4. The snap is then made to the QB, who by this time has himself moved back into the shotgun position.

5. The QB makes the read as to which outside receiver he is to throw it to.

6. The RB and TE on each side sprint in front of the respective outside WR and effectively create a shield for him to operate behind.

7. The one player left unmentioned is the slot receiver. Ideally, the slot receiver would be someone like Victor Cruz, who is the offense's target man. He runs a crossing route through midfield, bringing the safety, and hopefully bracket coverage along with him.

8. This means that the outside WRs only have to gain a step on their covering men, because they will then have one of the HB or TE to block for them.

9. This then means that once the WR has caught the ball there is a lane for him to run in because there is blocking by both the TE and the HB in front of him.

General Comments


1. This play would be best against zone coverage because it allows the WR who catches the ball to have a step on the CB, whereby the TE or HB will block, leaving the WR with a clear running lane.

2. Depending on the awareness and flexibility of the QB, this play can be used as an alternative to running for short yardage gains on third down, as long as the ball is released quickly.

Variants 


1. One or even both TEs or RBs can stay back if the QB senses a blitz, as any combination will still make the play work, because the blocking exists both downfield and by the QB at the time of the blitz.

2. Only one HB moves in motion, and from there an off tackle run to the side with the most blockers can be made.

3. Alternatively, where only one HB has moved in motion, play action can be made and then the play goes ahead as usual.

The Diagrams


1. This is the traditional line up before the snap.

2. This shows after the motion has been made, but before the snap.

3. This shows all the blocking and receiving routes when the play has begun.

So there we have it, The I Line Screen. I hope you all like it, do comment below, and please share with your friends, it means the world to me, it really does.

Until next time, where I will be talking about the NFC North, thanks for reading, comment your thoughts, and share share share.

Thanks a lot for reading,

Chris

Sunday 26 February 2012

The 2012 Season - Looking Ahead

In this next few posts, I'm going to be boldly making predictions about each team in the NFL, where they'll end up, whether they'll make the post season and who they need to pick up in the off season. I know that this is before the free Agency sorts itself out, before the Draft sorts itself out, before Peyton Manning sorts himself out, but that's part of the fun, I'll look like a genius if I'm write, and can just blame the FA and the Draft for when I'm wrong. So, every two or three days I'll be writing about a particular division, starting off with my very own NFC East

Giants - In the last five years this is a team who have won the Super Bowl for the first time as a Wild Card (finishing 10-6), won the Super Bowl for the first time as a 9-7 team, and then somewhere in the middle managed not to make the playoffs. Clearly then this it's hard to make predictions with 6 minutes to go before kick-off, let alone 6 months when Big Blue is involved. I'm going to stick my neck out here and say they end up 12-4, the same record they had the season after beating the Patriots last year, and win the division. Eli is playing like an elite QB right now, they have one of the best receiving corps in the League, provided they can keep hold of Mario Manningham, their front four on defense is the stuff of legends, and they should get more out of last year's draft picks, Prince Amukumara, Greg Jones and Taylor Sash, who weren't heavily featured last year. If you have good taste in football and join me in supporting the G-Men, the signs are good for this year. 

Eagles - The Dream Team or The Nightmare Bunch? After a woefully under par season, this team has something to prove. Michael Vick still has to silence the critics in Philly and some fans patience is running out. DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy have to lead this team offensively again. But it's on defense that I worry about this team. The Eagles could do with picking up some coverage for the secondaries in the off season in order to stop teams stretching them at the back as we saw sometimes during this year, perhaps looking at one of the Niners duo of Rogers and Goldson for some class at the back. Overall I think this team lets a Wildcard spot slip through their fingers in December, finishing 10-6, with the NFC's 7th overall ranking. 

Cowboys - One timeout in the desert stopped this team from going to the playoffs. Yes, you guessed it, the famous ice your own kicker incident. That story pretty much sums up this football team - the nearly men. The raw talent is more than evident, Romo, Ware, Murray, Jones, Witten, but it's stupid things which cost this franchise a shot at another Lombardi. Romo could do with a bit more time in the pocket to find an open man, so I say the 'Boys should look to pick up a guard in these few months. They finish 10-6, coming third in the division, with Romo having another forgettable December. On a completely different note, who wouldn't love to see T.O back in the Lone Star State. What a storyline that would be. 

Redskins - The most important question for this team is who will line up under centre come September. It's time teams worked out that Rex Grossman is not the kind of QB who you can build offenses around. So who? Matt Flynn, RG III, Peyton Manning, even Jason Campbell could make a return. All I know is that if I'm a Skins fan I'd take any of those names over Grossman. What worries me too is Shanahan. Where does he get that tan from? Seriously, that cannot be healthy. Aside from that, this is another lowly year in DC, so I'd be surprised if the Skins finished anything better than 7-9. 

So there we have it, my (perhaps not so) extensive knowledge of the NFL and predictions exposed to the world. Thanks for reading, feel free to comment below and I shall get back to each and every one of you personally, and if you like what you read then please do share it. 

Twitter : @thebd11offical 

Thanks again, 

Chris

Saturday 4 February 2012

Super Bowl XLVI

Hello All,

Thanks for reading my last post, as long and possibly boring as it was. I put some time into that both researching and writing, so it's nice to have some gratification when people read it. Anyway, as mentioned last night, this is going to be a post on the Super Bowl, including what I see as the key match ups. As Dave Dameshek says "Let it begin".

Right, the Super Bowl. Some people are calling it one of the worst Super Bowls in decades, but I could not disagree more. What you have here, are two Hall of Fame QBs, yes I'm including Eli in there, fighting it out. And look at where it is. Brady, Peyton's arch rival will win, or Eli, Peyton's younger brother, will overtake him in the number of Super Bowl rings.

So much has been said about this being a re match of 42, but I think that people have been overlooking both the recent form of these two teams, and also the game they played in the regular season. The Giants are hot. Seriously hot right now. But there's no question that the Patriots got here on merit, no question at all.

So, here are my reasons why I think that the Patriots will win the Super Bowl, followed by my reasons for the Giants.

I'm not going to talk about things like revenge or player emotions, because I'm a believer that both teams and every single player on that field are going to want to win. No one is going to want it more than each other, and it will just come down to skill and tactics. So here's the list. 

Brady. Belichick. Wilfork. Those three names are going to be absolutely crucial for the Pats. Whilst we're talking Belichick, have you seen his girlfriend? Really, how as a guy like him got a girl like her. I need some advice of him, that's for sure. Anyway, back to the matter at hand, sadly. Bill Belichick is possibly one of the most astute coaches ever to have graced the National Football League. He is aware that his defense is the second worst in the history of the NFL. He knows that Chad Ochocinco has suddenly developed Teflon coated hands, and that his only receivers are Welker and Gronk. (Apologies here to Branch and Hernandez.) But some of the things he has done on defense have been incredible in this post season. He plays some intelligent packages on defense, particularly what Greg Cosell refers to as the "Bullseye" concept. This is where, for those of you who don't want to click on the link, Belichick focuses on one single receiver who he believes to be the crucial player on that team, and effectively seeks to take him completely out of the game. (See Super Bowl 36 and Marshall Faulk). Sometimes he does this by physically preventing the receiver from getting off the line of scrimmage cleanly, thus ruining what is essentially a rhythm based passing game for the Giants. That will be crucial against Cruz. See more later.

So that's Belichick. I don't feel like I have to say much about Brady. After all, is there anything that hasn't already been said? The one thing that I will say is that right now, right here, I'd rather take Manning over Brady, but again, more later.

Now Wilfork. For me, Wilfork represents these Patriots on defense in the Post Season. Granted, they haven't come up against any offensive powerhouses, Ravens and Broncos, but you can only play what's in front of you. In the post season the Pats have allowed on average 325.0 yards per game, compared to 411.1. And let's be honest, in a division where you play 6 games vs the Jets, Dolphins and Bills, you cannot blame high powered offenses for those shameful stats in the regular season. I also think that the defensive front 4 is going to be key for the Pats. Much has been made of the Giants front 4, but I think that these Patriots are going to have a good game, whilst the constantly changing Giants O-Line will need to be on their toes in order to give Manning time. 

So, in essence, for the Patriots to win they need to cover Cruz using the "Bullseye", get pressure on Manning, and stop pressure on Brady. Easy huh? 

So now it's time for the Giants. Put simply, it comes down to four things. Manning. Receivers. Front 4. Running game. 

Firstly, Eli. This guy is possibly the hottest quarterback in the NFL right now. He's averaging more yards per game in the post season than Brady, and compare Manning's one interception in three games to Brady's three in two games. And Manning had to play the two teams with the most turnovers in the league. Not an easy task, but one that he rose to. I also think that Manning will keep doing it in fourth quarter. He broke the NFL record for most touchdowns in the fourth quarter this season, beating Peyton in 2002. Furthermore, has anyone been noticing Eli's feet this year? I say that this man has been training with Tebow. He must have got himself out of at least 20 sacks this year, at least. He can also throw brilliantly off balance, and can get himself out of the pocket when he needs to. Right now, I think that Brady struggles when the pocket starts collapsing, but Manning thrives. That's why I pick Manning to have not only more yards than Brady, but more TD's and a higher passer rating. That's bold right there. 

Secondly, receivers. The Giants love to put Cruz in the slot and let him do the work. They love lining up with three receivers, Cruz, Manningham and Nicks. But what they love most of all, is torching the defense for long touchdowns. Nicks has been doing it in the post season, but Cruz did it all year in the regular season. Note that Nicks did not play in the regular season meeting between these two teams. How crucial could that prove to be? Anyway, back to receivers. I see the Pats trying to play this bullseye of theirs on Cruz, leaving Manningham, Nicks, but most importantly of all, Jake Ballard, wide open for mid-yardage gains, enough to keep the chains moving. I think that this could be one of the most lopsided receivers v secondary battles in Super Bowl history, and it's hard to argue against the Giants having 2 or more 100 yard receivers. 

Right. The famous front four. You like that alliteration? Right now, I take Jason Pierre-Paul above any other defensive player in the league. The man is a monster. But let's not forget the team he has around him. Canty. Tuck. Umenyiora. Kiwanuka. Those names strike fear into the heart of any QB in the league. If the Giants get to Brady 4 or more times, they win the game. Simple as that. However, it is not as straight forward as that. The Patriots love playing with two tight ends. Gronk and Hernandez. The stats back this up. When two tight ends are on the field, and they will be, because the Pats use two tight end formations on over 70 % of their plays, and all year, the Giants have how many sacks against two tight end formations? 10 I hear you say? Wrong. 4. These two TEs can effectively close out any outside pressure that the Giants might bring, thus giving Brady the time to get some throws off. It is my belief that if the Patriots play a mainly two tight end team, they will all but destroy the Giants pass rush, leaving the secondary to have to do some work, for the first time since they played in the Big Easy. 

Finally, the running game. Much has been made of how awful it is. The 32nd in the league in the regular season. (That supports my argument that Manning should be right up there for MVP. He carried that team this year.) Anyway, now let's look at the post season. The Giants are averaging 117 YPG in the post season, but most importantly, of all teams they have the most 20 + yard rushes of all teams. That is a huge stat, because it is so crucial to setting up the play action game. The PA game is so important to the G-Men because if Belichick's coverage works downfield, they're going to have to start throwing some little screens, or hook routes to tight ends and running backs, and they can only do this if they successfully get the defense to bite on the play action. 

Anyway, that's my take on the big game. I just hope that it's a good game from a neutral point of view, but from my point of view, I hope the Giants crush the Pats, and teach them a lesson in all round football. I think that Manning will be the MVP, and as long as Brady doesn't get too long in the pocket, he won’t be allowed to throw for more than 300 yards, with 3 TDs maximum. 





Prediction: Giants win by 8 (see last night's post for exact scores) 

Thank you all so much for reading, and please tell your friends if you like it. I'll do a piece reviewing the Bowl at some point next week. So thank you once more, spread the word. 

Chris 

x

Friday 3 February 2012

The NFL Year That Was

Hi guys, I know it's been a long time sine I've spoken to you all, so for that I apologise.

It's been another fantastic year in the NFL, especially for me as a Giants fan, so here's to hoping they can win the big one on Sunday. I'm going to write a few words about that then, but first let me give you some overall thoughts on the season that just passed.

I strongly believe that this league has become too offensively and particularly pass favourite. I think that when you have two quarterbacks breaking Marino's single season record, you need to look at why that is. Sure, Brees and Brady are both elite quarterbacks, but the Patriots receiving corps is, barring R Gronk and Welker, not an elite unite worthy of such an accolade. Such ridiculous calls like the one we saw in the Divisional Game between the Giants and the Packers where Umenyiora was called for head to head contact against Rodgers when his helmet barely brushed Rodgers' just goes to show how far away from defense this league is.

Don't get me wrong, I love watching an old school shout out, such as the Lions-Packers Week 17 game. But sometimes I feel that this league may be putting a significant disadvantage on defensive based teams. Look at the statistics. The Jets, Browns, Eagles, Seahawks and Jaguars all finished in the top 10 defensively ranked teams (Yards allowed per Game) and not one of them had a winning record, let alone the post season. Yes, most of them had enough issues on offense, but when half of the top 10 defenses don't make the playoffs, and in the Jets and Eagles case, have decent enough offenses, one has to question this league.

Furthermore, it would seem that the running game has become little more to many teams then an effective way of setting up the play action. When adding up the running yards of the top 5 running backs in each year, this year the total was 6,843. Apart from in 2007, when it was 6,768, this was the worst year in NFL history since 1993. This just goes to prove that whilst we have had the most successful and decorated passing year in the history of the NFL, we certainly have not had a vintage year for the running back.

Now whilst we're on the subjects of statistics, let's look at this year for the passer. Using the same technique as above, the passing yards come to 25,325. Now for last year this was 22,402. Are you seriously telling me that this year the quarterback was 11.5% better than last year? I mean, really? Tarvaris Jackson? Rex Grossman? Colt McCoy? Matt Cassel? Curtis Painter? Is Mark Sanchez really a 3,500 yards kinda guy? Not with the old rules he wouldn't have been. Lucky to make 3,000 I reckon. Just goes to show how passer biased this league is.

Anyway, before I look ahead to this Sunday, I'm going to look at the season that was and list a few things that caught my eye. Overall I think it was a great year for football. We had all the ingredients that one needed for a great year - a running quarterback, two great rookie quarterbacks, the tight end position being reinvented, a wide receiver showing that undrafted players can succeed, an elite year for some quarterbacks, some new playoff faces, but most of all, unpredictability. Who would have called the Chiefs to pull off one of the greatest upsets for a long time? What about those Seahawks taking both the Giants and the Ravens? Or the Rams beating the Saints?

It's not been all great however. Some things have been saddening as a football fan, from whatever team you support. Such things include : the absence of Peyton Manning, his Colts going 2-14 just shows how crucial to that team he was. Also, the Paul Brown stadium hardly ever being half full let alone sold out. C'mon. Your team made the Playoffs for god's sake the least you can do is support them. Finally, my heart goes out to Joe Philbin and his family. An awful loss of life for one so young, and my thoughts and wishes are with him as he starts life with the Dolphins, who incidentally are my surprise pick for next year.

Anyway, after it's all said and done, here are my thoughts for this season's awards, or some of them at least.

Coach of the Year - Jim Harbaugh. What he did with that team was nothing short of a miracle. With basically the same set of guys to turn the team around from being 6-10 to 13-3 is incredible, and he finally made Alex Smith feel like a wanted member of the team. Cudos to him.

MVP - I don't want to give it to Discount Doublecheck, but I feel that I have to. Let's be honest, he had an outstanding year. His redzone accuracy was like nothing you've seen before. Honourable mention must go to Brees, Brady and both Mannings.

Rookie of the Year - A tough one. Newton, Dalton, Green or the wildcard von Miller. I'm going to have to give it to Newton. He had a Rookie year like no other. And if his team could have won a couple of closer games at the start of the year then who knows how well they may have done in that division.

Favourite Moment - It has to be when Jerome Simpson made that now famous backflip over the top of Daryl Washington, and then landed it perfectly. Great to see also the pass coming from a Rookie QB.

Best Match - This is one which will have sneaked under the radar for many NFL fans, but it's one from early on in the year which was a true classic. Hosted by those Buffalo Bills, they beat the New England Patriots 34-31 with a 28 yard field goal in the last minute to snap a 15 game losing streak against the Pats. Such were the scenes of jubilation that stadium security had to guard the goal posts in case fans brought them down.

And finally, arguably the most prestigious of all my pointless awards is the Team of the Year Award. This year, it's going to the Houston Texans. There's no doubt in my mind that if they hadn't lost Schaub, Leinart, Williams and Johnson for much of the season then they would be the AFC representative in Indianapolis right now. Even then, to win your first ever playoff game with a 3rd string rookie quarterback is impressive. But that's not what impressed me most. Wade Phillips transformed that defense from the 30th ranked team to the 2nd rank team in ONE YEAR! That just shows you how incredible a coach he is, but also how flexible and willing to work his defense was.

Contrary to what I previously put, I won't be sharing my thoughts on the Super Bowl until tomorrow, I think that this is sufficient reading material to last until then. However, I will leave you with a teaser, and that is my predicted score : Giants 31, Patriots 23.

Please do comment with any questions or suggestions or disagreements that you have with this piece, I'll get back to you all personally ASAP.

Thank you for reading, I'll see you all tomorrow.

Chris,

P.S. Let's Go Big Blue!