Hello All,
Thanks for reading my last post, as long and possibly boring as it was. I put some time into that both researching and writing, so it's nice to have some gratification when people read it. Anyway, as mentioned last night, this is going to be a post on the Super Bowl, including what I see as the key match ups. As Dave Dameshek says "Let it begin".
Right, the Super Bowl. Some people are calling it one of the worst Super Bowls in decades, but I could not disagree more. What you have here, are two Hall of Fame QBs, yes I'm including Eli in there, fighting it out. And look at where it is. Brady, Peyton's arch rival will win, or Eli, Peyton's younger brother, will overtake him in the number of Super Bowl rings.
So much has been said about this being a re match of 42, but I think that people have been overlooking both the recent form of these two teams, and also the game they played in the regular season. The Giants are hot. Seriously hot right now. But there's no question that the Patriots got here on merit, no question at all.
So, here are my reasons why I think that the Patriots will win the Super Bowl, followed by my reasons for the Giants.
I'm not going to talk about things like revenge or player emotions, because I'm a believer that both teams and every single player on that field are going to want to win. No one is going to want it more than each other, and it will just come down to skill and tactics. So here's the list.
Brady. Belichick. Wilfork. Those three names are going to be absolutely crucial for the Pats. Whilst we're talking Belichick, have you seen his girlfriend? Really, how as a guy like him got a girl like her. I need some advice of him, that's for sure. Anyway, back to the matter at hand, sadly. Bill Belichick is possibly one of the most astute coaches ever to have graced the National Football League. He is aware that his defense is the second worst in the history of the NFL. He knows that Chad Ochocinco has suddenly developed Teflon coated hands, and that his only receivers are Welker and Gronk. (Apologies here to Branch and Hernandez.) But some of the things he has done on defense have been incredible in this post season. He plays some intelligent packages on defense, particularly what Greg Cosell refers to as the "Bullseye" concept. This is where, for those of you who don't want to click on the link, Belichick focuses on one single receiver who he believes to be the crucial player on that team, and effectively seeks to take him completely out of the game. (See Super Bowl 36 and Marshall Faulk). Sometimes he does this by physically preventing the receiver from getting off the line of scrimmage cleanly, thus ruining what is essentially a rhythm based passing game for the Giants. That will be crucial against Cruz. See more later.
So that's Belichick. I don't feel like I have to say much about Brady. After all, is there anything that hasn't already been said? The one thing that I will say is that right now, right here, I'd rather take Manning over Brady, but again, more later.
Now Wilfork. For me, Wilfork represents these Patriots on defense in the Post Season. Granted, they haven't come up against any offensive powerhouses, Ravens and Broncos, but you can only play what's in front of you. In the post season the Pats have allowed on average 325.0 yards per game, compared to 411.1. And let's be honest, in a division where you play 6 games vs the Jets, Dolphins and Bills, you cannot blame high powered offenses for those shameful stats in the regular season. I also think that the defensive front 4 is going to be key for the Pats. Much has been made of the Giants front 4, but I think that these Patriots are going to have a good game, whilst the constantly changing Giants O-Line will need to be on their toes in order to give Manning time.
So, in essence, for the Patriots to win they need to cover Cruz using the "Bullseye", get pressure on Manning, and stop pressure on Brady. Easy huh?
So now it's time for the Giants. Put simply, it comes down to four things. Manning. Receivers. Front 4. Running game.
Firstly, Eli. This guy is possibly the hottest quarterback in the NFL right now. He's averaging more yards per game in the post season than Brady, and compare Manning's one interception in three games to Brady's three in two games. And Manning had to play the two teams with the most turnovers in the league. Not an easy task, but one that he rose to. I also think that Manning will keep doing it in fourth quarter. He broke the NFL record for most touchdowns in the fourth quarter this season, beating Peyton in 2002. Furthermore, has anyone been noticing Eli's feet this year? I say that this man has been training with Tebow. He must have got himself out of at least 20 sacks this year, at least. He can also throw brilliantly off balance, and can get himself out of the pocket when he needs to. Right now, I think that Brady struggles when the pocket starts collapsing, but Manning thrives. That's why I pick Manning to have not only more yards than Brady, but more TD's and a higher passer rating. That's bold right there.
Secondly, receivers. The Giants love to put Cruz in the slot and let him do the work. They love lining up with three receivers, Cruz, Manningham and Nicks. But what they love most of all, is torching the defense for long touchdowns. Nicks has been doing it in the post season, but Cruz did it all year in the regular season. Note that Nicks did not play in the regular season meeting between these two teams. How crucial could that prove to be? Anyway, back to receivers. I see the Pats trying to play this bullseye of theirs on Cruz, leaving Manningham, Nicks, but most importantly of all, Jake Ballard, wide open for mid-yardage gains, enough to keep the chains moving. I think that this could be one of the most lopsided receivers v secondary battles in Super Bowl history, and it's hard to argue against the Giants having 2 or more 100 yard receivers.
Right. The famous front four. You like that alliteration? Right now, I take Jason Pierre-Paul above any other defensive player in the league. The man is a monster. But let's not forget the team he has around him. Canty. Tuck. Umenyiora. Kiwanuka. Those names strike fear into the heart of any QB in the league. If the Giants get to Brady 4 or more times, they win the game. Simple as that. However, it is not as straight forward as that. The Patriots love playing with two tight ends. Gronk and Hernandez. The stats back this up. When two tight ends are on the field, and they will be, because the Pats use two tight end formations on over 70 % of their plays, and all year, the Giants have how many sacks against two tight end formations? 10 I hear you say? Wrong. 4. These two TEs can effectively close out any outside pressure that the Giants might bring, thus giving Brady the time to get some throws off. It is my belief that if the Patriots play a mainly two tight end team, they will all but destroy the Giants pass rush, leaving the secondary to have to do some work, for the first time since they played in the Big Easy.
Finally, the running game. Much has been made of how awful it is. The 32nd in the league in the regular season. (That supports my argument that Manning should be right up there for MVP. He carried that team this year.) Anyway, now let's look at the post season. The Giants are averaging 117 YPG in the post season, but most importantly, of all teams they have the most 20 + yard rushes of all teams. That is a huge stat, because it is so crucial to setting up the play action game. The PA game is so important to the G-Men because if Belichick's coverage works downfield, they're going to have to start throwing some little screens, or hook routes to tight ends and running backs, and they can only do this if they successfully get the defense to bite on the play action.
Anyway, that's my take on the big game. I just hope that it's a good game from a neutral point of view, but from my point of view, I hope the Giants crush the Pats, and teach them a lesson in all round football. I think that Manning will be the MVP, and as long as Brady doesn't get too long in the pocket, he won’t be allowed to throw for more than 300 yards, with 3 TDs maximum.
Prediction: Giants win by 8 (see last night's post for exact scores)
Thank you all so much for reading, and please tell your friends if you like it. I'll do a piece reviewing the Bowl at some point next week. So thank you once more, spread the word.
Chris
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